SN
SkyNews
Vote 2000 USA - what did you all make of the coverage?
Reminder:
Sky provided EXCELLENT coverage anchored by Martin Stanford AND Jeremy Thompson in Washington. With Jonathan Hunt with Gore & Stuart Ramsey with Bush AND Michelle Clifford & Emma Hurd in DC. Sky used Fox & CBS in their coverage excellently.
Some great Dan Rather quotes from the time I kept:
On the close election results:
'It's tight. It's spandex tight.'
'It's shaky, it's shaking like cafeteria gello.'
'The race for the New York senate seat was hot. It was hot as a New York elevator in August.'
On Gore winning Washington, taking his lead to 246 electoral votes over Bush's 242:
'I do not give people advice. But if the kids have not gone to sleep, get them in the room because they are going to be talking about this presidential race for decades to come.'
On suggestions Mr Bush owed the Green Party's Ralph Nader for splitting the Democrat vote:
'You are more likely to see a hippo running through this room than you are to see Governor Bush offer Ralph Nader an appointment to his cabinet.'
On results from Florida, which suggested Bush was about to claim victory:
'It looks like Gore's chances are slim. And slim has just left town.'
'It's not over until the large lady sings. She's not singing yet but she's humming backstage.'
On the decision by the US networks to declare Mr Bush president, then retract:
'Is it an embarrassing situation? You bet.'
'If you're disgusted with us - frankly, I don't blame you.'
All that after saying @ 7:07pm:
CBS will have the 'clearest, fastest and most accurate picture of tonights' results.
'Let's get one thing straight right from the get go. We'd rather be last in reporting returns than to be wrong.And oagain ur record demonstrates that true . . . If we say someone has carried a state, you can pretty much take it to the bank that that's true.'
------------------------------------
ITN only carried coverage on ITN NC anchored by Julia Summerville with James Mates & Robert Moore with the leaders & Tom Bradbry in DC.
BBC anchored by Dimble D. in their DC studio with experts & Tony King. With its HGUE team of reporters across America - wasting the license payers money
--------------------------------------
YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN THIS ARTICLE FROM THE TIME I KEPT - It's very long BUT 1 of you might find it interesting
How They Blew It
A behind-the-scenes look at the television networks' dismal performance on election night. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By Alicia C. Shepard From AJR, January/February 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AS VOTES BEGAN STREAMING into Voter News Service's headquarters after Florida's 7 p.m. poll closing, it seemed clear to many network prognosticators that Al Gore was going to clobber George W. Bush in the Sunshine State. What a story. Florida's governor could not deliver the votes for his older brother. But not all experts hired to help the TV networks on election night thought Florida was a done deal for the vice president 50 minutes after the polls closed. Some didn't trust the accuracy of Voter News Service projection models, models which ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN have relied on for 10 years and which only once had incorrectly projected a major race. In the end, the doubters were right. At least three ABC analysts warned against calling Florida for Gore, but their advice went unheeded. It didn't match the VNS models. Besides, raw votes from 120 key sample precincts and votes trickling in from counties were tracking with exit poll data collected that day at 45 sample precincts. Exit poll data and sample precinct votes churned through models that analyzed past voting patterns, factored in exit poll biases, and correlated how candidates stacked up against previous contenders. Around 7:45 p.m., exit poll data, which began coming in at lunchtime, showed a 6.6 percent lead for Gore over Bush. But election analysts knew only a fool would call Florida for Gore based on exit poll information alone. As votes arrived from sample precincts carefully chosen to represent voters across the state, the model predicted a 5.4 percent lead for Gore. It indicated Gore needed a 'critical value'--a statistical degree of certainty--of 2.6 or higher before any network could comfortably hand the vice president Florida. At 7:50 p.m., the 'critical value' showed 3.2 for Gore. The Voter News Service model was more than 99.5 percent sure Gore would carry the state. Under 'status,' at 7:50 p.m. the VNS screen said: 'Call.' In the race to be first, NBC 'won,' jumping even before VNS at 7:49 p.m. CBS waited one minute. Warren Mitofsky, who invented exit polls in 1967, has been in the race-calling business for 33 years. He ran CBS' election unit from 1972 until 1990 and is known for his caution. Mitofsky, working for CBS and CNN, had vote totals from 12 of 120 sample precincts and data from 38 exit poll precincts. Gore was doing so well that he concluded exit polls had been overstating Bush's numbers. 'The real votes were telling us Gore was ahead,' says Mitofsky. 'The exit poll data gave us a slight lead for Gore, and the overlap of the two was telling us that the exit poll data should have given Gore more support.' There are three sources of data that VNS uses for its projections. Exit poll results, the least accurate of the three, come in three times during the day. They are only used to project winners. Once the polls close, raw votes from sample precincts are phoned in and measured against exit poll data. The tally that counts--the actual vote total--comes in throughout the evening. At 7:50 p.m., Mitofsky and his partner, Joe Lenski, confidently instructed CBS and CNN to call Florida for Gore. Fox News Channel, in the presidential projection business for only the second time, followed suit at 7:52, joined by the Associated Press at 7:53 and CNN at 7:55. 'The sad fact is that was a straightforward call,' says Jonathan P. Wolman, AP's executive editor. 'VNS' projection material provides a guidepost that warns you statistically if there's a bias in the material that might skew the results. In this case, that bias indicator said it might be underestimating Gore's advantage.' But not everyone saw things that way. At VNS' temporary quarters on the 93rd floor of Manhattan's World Trade Center, two political scientists working for ABC, each with a strong statistical background, didn't think the Florida result was clear-cut. Nor did they completely trust the VNS model. When the decision desk telephoned the two analysts asking, 'Can we make the call?' both men advised against awarding Florida to Gore. Polling places in Florida's Panhandle in the Central Time Zone wouldn't close for 10 more minutes. Only 237,115 actual votes had been tabulated in a state with 8.8 million registered voters. But other factors involving statistical probabilities and VNS models troubled Kenneth Goldstein, of the University of Wisconsin, and Christopher Achen, of the University of Michigan, where election surveys were pioneered in the 1940s. Achen had flown to New York City six days before the election to prepare for the big night. He spent four days studying VNS models, trying to pinpoint why they had screwed up in picking the winner of the 1996 New Hampshire Senate race. The networks--ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC--and the AP created VNS in 1993. The idea was to save money by pooling resources and receiving data amassed by a single source. Fox joined the consortium in 1996. For the most part, the setup has worked well. VNS projections have largely been accurate, to the point that they have virtually been treated as facts--a state called for one candidate moments after polls close is seen as decided. But four years ago, the system failed: Each network, relying on exit polls, prematurely called New Hampshire for Democratic Senate challenger Dick Swett. When the votes were counted, it turned out Republican Sen. Robert C. Smith had been re-elected. 'I dug in and went over that as extensively as 30 years of experience would allow me,' says Achen. 'I worked out a rule of thumb to protect myself on election night from it happening again.' Achen was so determined to prevent a similar error that ABC colleagues began referring to him as 'Mr. New Hampshire.' Looking at the Florida data around 7:30 p.m., Achen noticed the Gore exit poll numbers were higher than VNS had predicted. This bothered him because exit polls tend to have a Democratic bias. Plus, not all exit poll data was in before 8 p.m. And what about absentee votes? Analysts expected 10 percent of Florida votes to be absentee. With about 6 million people expected to vote, that's 600,000 votes that exit polls know nothing about. 'But first and foremost,' says Achen, 'when I applied my rule of thumb to protect ABC against mistakes, it indicated it was too soon to call.' And so, while other networks were falling all over one another to declare Gore the victor in Florida, Achen held back. While the VNS model indicated more than 99 percent certainty for Gore, Achen saw it as more like 85 percent. Neither he nor Goldstein advocated making the call. There was too much at stake to move precipitously. 'It wasn't like we were calling an off-year dog catcher race in North Dakota,' Goldstein says. 'Besides, what's the hurry?' At ABC headquarters on Manhattan's West Side, Paul Freedman was part of the six-person decision team formed to call the Senate, gubernatorial and presidential races. Freedman, a University of Virginia political scientist, also thought it was too early. 'It's fair to say the three of us wanted to be more confident before making a call, because we thought there was too much uncertainty in the estimate,' says Freedman. Others, he says, were also endorsing caution. But they weren't advising in a vacuum. By 8 p.m., the other networks were flashing Florida for Gore. Pundits were proclaiming that a Gore win there just might put him in the White House before the 11 o'clock news. Despite the misgivings of its experts, ABC's team couldn't resist the competitive pressure, and ABC decision desk chief Carolyn Smith made the call. None of the advisers claims to be a white knight. They could have argued their case more forcefully, but they didn't. They are academics hired to share their wisdom, not adrenaline-charged journalists impatient to make a decision. So, at 8:02 p.m., anchor Peter Jennings joined the pack. 'ABC News projects that Al Gore wins the state of Florida and its 25 electoral votes,' said Jennings. 'Give him the first big state momentum of the evening. This is the biggest state where the race has been close, the fourth biggest electoral prize.' As Jennings spoke, Goldstein turned to Achen. 'I think they may have fallen into the New Hampshire trap,' he said.
Reminder:
Sky provided EXCELLENT coverage anchored by Martin Stanford AND Jeremy Thompson in Washington. With Jonathan Hunt with Gore & Stuart Ramsey with Bush AND Michelle Clifford & Emma Hurd in DC. Sky used Fox & CBS in their coverage excellently.
Some great Dan Rather quotes from the time I kept:
On the close election results:
'It's tight. It's spandex tight.'
'It's shaky, it's shaking like cafeteria gello.'
'The race for the New York senate seat was hot. It was hot as a New York elevator in August.'
On Gore winning Washington, taking his lead to 246 electoral votes over Bush's 242:
'I do not give people advice. But if the kids have not gone to sleep, get them in the room because they are going to be talking about this presidential race for decades to come.'
On suggestions Mr Bush owed the Green Party's Ralph Nader for splitting the Democrat vote:
'You are more likely to see a hippo running through this room than you are to see Governor Bush offer Ralph Nader an appointment to his cabinet.'
On results from Florida, which suggested Bush was about to claim victory:
'It looks like Gore's chances are slim. And slim has just left town.'
'It's not over until the large lady sings. She's not singing yet but she's humming backstage.'
On the decision by the US networks to declare Mr Bush president, then retract:
'Is it an embarrassing situation? You bet.'
'If you're disgusted with us - frankly, I don't blame you.'
All that after saying @ 7:07pm:
CBS will have the 'clearest, fastest and most accurate picture of tonights' results.
'Let's get one thing straight right from the get go. We'd rather be last in reporting returns than to be wrong.And oagain ur record demonstrates that true . . . If we say someone has carried a state, you can pretty much take it to the bank that that's true.'
------------------------------------
ITN only carried coverage on ITN NC anchored by Julia Summerville with James Mates & Robert Moore with the leaders & Tom Bradbry in DC.
BBC anchored by Dimble D. in their DC studio with experts & Tony King. With its HGUE team of reporters across America - wasting the license payers money
--------------------------------------
YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN THIS ARTICLE FROM THE TIME I KEPT - It's very long BUT 1 of you might find it interesting
How They Blew It
A behind-the-scenes look at the television networks' dismal performance on election night. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By Alicia C. Shepard From AJR, January/February 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AS VOTES BEGAN STREAMING into Voter News Service's headquarters after Florida's 7 p.m. poll closing, it seemed clear to many network prognosticators that Al Gore was going to clobber George W. Bush in the Sunshine State. What a story. Florida's governor could not deliver the votes for his older brother. But not all experts hired to help the TV networks on election night thought Florida was a done deal for the vice president 50 minutes after the polls closed. Some didn't trust the accuracy of Voter News Service projection models, models which ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN have relied on for 10 years and which only once had incorrectly projected a major race. In the end, the doubters were right. At least three ABC analysts warned against calling Florida for Gore, but their advice went unheeded. It didn't match the VNS models. Besides, raw votes from 120 key sample precincts and votes trickling in from counties were tracking with exit poll data collected that day at 45 sample precincts. Exit poll data and sample precinct votes churned through models that analyzed past voting patterns, factored in exit poll biases, and correlated how candidates stacked up against previous contenders. Around 7:45 p.m., exit poll data, which began coming in at lunchtime, showed a 6.6 percent lead for Gore over Bush. But election analysts knew only a fool would call Florida for Gore based on exit poll information alone. As votes arrived from sample precincts carefully chosen to represent voters across the state, the model predicted a 5.4 percent lead for Gore. It indicated Gore needed a 'critical value'--a statistical degree of certainty--of 2.6 or higher before any network could comfortably hand the vice president Florida. At 7:50 p.m., the 'critical value' showed 3.2 for Gore. The Voter News Service model was more than 99.5 percent sure Gore would carry the state. Under 'status,' at 7:50 p.m. the VNS screen said: 'Call.' In the race to be first, NBC 'won,' jumping even before VNS at 7:49 p.m. CBS waited one minute. Warren Mitofsky, who invented exit polls in 1967, has been in the race-calling business for 33 years. He ran CBS' election unit from 1972 until 1990 and is known for his caution. Mitofsky, working for CBS and CNN, had vote totals from 12 of 120 sample precincts and data from 38 exit poll precincts. Gore was doing so well that he concluded exit polls had been overstating Bush's numbers. 'The real votes were telling us Gore was ahead,' says Mitofsky. 'The exit poll data gave us a slight lead for Gore, and the overlap of the two was telling us that the exit poll data should have given Gore more support.' There are three sources of data that VNS uses for its projections. Exit poll results, the least accurate of the three, come in three times during the day. They are only used to project winners. Once the polls close, raw votes from sample precincts are phoned in and measured against exit poll data. The tally that counts--the actual vote total--comes in throughout the evening. At 7:50 p.m., Mitofsky and his partner, Joe Lenski, confidently instructed CBS and CNN to call Florida for Gore. Fox News Channel, in the presidential projection business for only the second time, followed suit at 7:52, joined by the Associated Press at 7:53 and CNN at 7:55. 'The sad fact is that was a straightforward call,' says Jonathan P. Wolman, AP's executive editor. 'VNS' projection material provides a guidepost that warns you statistically if there's a bias in the material that might skew the results. In this case, that bias indicator said it might be underestimating Gore's advantage.' But not everyone saw things that way. At VNS' temporary quarters on the 93rd floor of Manhattan's World Trade Center, two political scientists working for ABC, each with a strong statistical background, didn't think the Florida result was clear-cut. Nor did they completely trust the VNS model. When the decision desk telephoned the two analysts asking, 'Can we make the call?' both men advised against awarding Florida to Gore. Polling places in Florida's Panhandle in the Central Time Zone wouldn't close for 10 more minutes. Only 237,115 actual votes had been tabulated in a state with 8.8 million registered voters. But other factors involving statistical probabilities and VNS models troubled Kenneth Goldstein, of the University of Wisconsin, and Christopher Achen, of the University of Michigan, where election surveys were pioneered in the 1940s. Achen had flown to New York City six days before the election to prepare for the big night. He spent four days studying VNS models, trying to pinpoint why they had screwed up in picking the winner of the 1996 New Hampshire Senate race. The networks--ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC--and the AP created VNS in 1993. The idea was to save money by pooling resources and receiving data amassed by a single source. Fox joined the consortium in 1996. For the most part, the setup has worked well. VNS projections have largely been accurate, to the point that they have virtually been treated as facts--a state called for one candidate moments after polls close is seen as decided. But four years ago, the system failed: Each network, relying on exit polls, prematurely called New Hampshire for Democratic Senate challenger Dick Swett. When the votes were counted, it turned out Republican Sen. Robert C. Smith had been re-elected. 'I dug in and went over that as extensively as 30 years of experience would allow me,' says Achen. 'I worked out a rule of thumb to protect myself on election night from it happening again.' Achen was so determined to prevent a similar error that ABC colleagues began referring to him as 'Mr. New Hampshire.' Looking at the Florida data around 7:30 p.m., Achen noticed the Gore exit poll numbers were higher than VNS had predicted. This bothered him because exit polls tend to have a Democratic bias. Plus, not all exit poll data was in before 8 p.m. And what about absentee votes? Analysts expected 10 percent of Florida votes to be absentee. With about 6 million people expected to vote, that's 600,000 votes that exit polls know nothing about. 'But first and foremost,' says Achen, 'when I applied my rule of thumb to protect ABC against mistakes, it indicated it was too soon to call.' And so, while other networks were falling all over one another to declare Gore the victor in Florida, Achen held back. While the VNS model indicated more than 99 percent certainty for Gore, Achen saw it as more like 85 percent. Neither he nor Goldstein advocated making the call. There was too much at stake to move precipitously. 'It wasn't like we were calling an off-year dog catcher race in North Dakota,' Goldstein says. 'Besides, what's the hurry?' At ABC headquarters on Manhattan's West Side, Paul Freedman was part of the six-person decision team formed to call the Senate, gubernatorial and presidential races. Freedman, a University of Virginia political scientist, also thought it was too early. 'It's fair to say the three of us wanted to be more confident before making a call, because we thought there was too much uncertainty in the estimate,' says Freedman. Others, he says, were also endorsing caution. But they weren't advising in a vacuum. By 8 p.m., the other networks were flashing Florida for Gore. Pundits were proclaiming that a Gore win there just might put him in the White House before the 11 o'clock news. Despite the misgivings of its experts, ABC's team couldn't resist the competitive pressure, and ABC decision desk chief Carolyn Smith made the call. None of the advisers claims to be a white knight. They could have argued their case more forcefully, but they didn't. They are academics hired to share their wisdom, not adrenaline-charged journalists impatient to make a decision. So, at 8:02 p.m., anchor Peter Jennings joined the pack. 'ABC News projects that Al Gore wins the state of Florida and its 25 electoral votes,' said Jennings. 'Give him the first big state momentum of the evening. This is the biggest state where the race has been close, the fourth biggest electoral prize.' As Jennings spoke, Goldstein turned to Achen. 'I think they may have fallen into the New Hampshire trap,' he said.