EXIT Poll, How is this going to work this time? Last time there were roughly right but it came down to 1000 Vote in 10 areas which could have swung either way. Will it just be another Straight exit poll Or will there do a 1992 and say it could go margin of error?
Whilst opinion pollsters should hang their heads in shame Prof. John Curtice has been the hero of the past 2 general elections. I have no doubt his exit poll will be far more accurate than any opinion poll has been.
Its not *his* exit poll as such, but he is excellent in his analysis. Some of his best work was on referendum night - there was no previous vote to work with, but the model he and his team had developed turned out - right from the moment the Sunderland result came in early in the night - to be on the money,
Worth remembering that there are two key differences with the exit poll verses any other - it asks people how they voted rather than how they intend to vote and the sample size is huge compared to any other poll, several times as big. The results are very carefully weighted and analysised before the final prediction is made.
The exit poll also uses past exit polls, and the subsequent actual results, to come to its conclusion.
There's a good article on the methodology here:
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
And of course, while the seats weren't fully accurate, the underlying %ages were near-enough spot on:
