Until Cowell is properly off-the-boil, there's not a chance in hell ITV would buy the Voice instead of one of his programmes.
That would be biting the hand that feeds.
ITV offered a full 10m more over 2 years but got turned down. Danny Cohen said At Edinburgh last Summer, The BBC never changed their bid even after ITV moved in.
I think the real threat of poaching The Voice comes from Sky. That's what they do - although they usually wait until a show has passed its peak. And once they're done with all their Ashley Banjo dance shows, they will have a large gap to plug.
90% of Shed Media's productions are on the BBC, they're not going to piss off their biggest customer. Why do you think Waterloo Road has a brand new HQ in Scotland and a full 2 year commission
ITV and Channel 4 have previously sniffed around The Apprentice and Masterchef respectively but they both remain at the BBC despite being offered a lot more money by the Commercial sector. Why because the Beeb is too big and important to piss off. Shine's drama companies [Including Kudos] might as well close down without the BBC.
It's completely different to a US TV drama being poached by Sky from an International production company.