To be honest I can't see the channel getting a licence...
Is there even a remote possibility that the BAI wouldn't grant them a license to broadcast? I don't see how that could be possible in an open society.
It'll be interesting to see if it gets onto Saorview, though. It appears to be a closed platform reserved for the PSBs (excluding 3e?). AIUI, Ireland is far more reliant on cable and satellite than the UK, so they could just ignore it.
I don't see why it would be granted a licence. 3e is considered a PSB and that's how it managed to get on Saorview and 105 on Sky..
It will get a content contract from the BAI, I've no doubt. Firstly the Minister for Communications (Pat Rabbite) appears to be very much behind it, going so far to appear at the launch today. Secondly Channel 6 managed to get one on a diet of almost exclusively US (not even European) content, virtually its only Irish shows being links between pop videos. Thirdly, and most importantly, there's no reason not to give it one.
Whether it will get on Saorview is another question entirely, and not at all a certainty but I'd say it will as long as it is willing to pay 2RN's rate card, particularly if it can prove itself to have any sort of PSB content. It will almost certainly get carriage replacing UTV on UPC.
Indeed nobody appears to have realised yet that it is very likely to replace UTV on UPC - it would mean the end of access to ITV's news and sports programming, as well as much of the ITV schedule not made by ITV itself, for viewers on cable in Ireland after nearly forty years of being able to watch ITV in one form or another.