This is how I see it. The Voice is going to ITV in 2017, will be in the slot X Factor normally runs for, since I doubt X Factor will survive after next year (BGT will however, it's still popular).
Cowell will instead focus on America's Got Talent and BGT, and rest more during the year (this is due to his mum's death and because of other issues during this year).
X Factor will have another year, but should state it's the last series before hand and make sure it goes out with a bang.
I agree, though Cowell still seems oblivious to it's failings. In his head the US version will be back one day too.
Agree BGT will continue but what might be interesting is if Cowell throws his toys out of the pram and takes it to the BBC. It's the one Cowell property that could work on the BBC, though undoubtedly it would see a cut in the budget, and with ITV having secured the Royal Variety rights for the next few years they could refuse to let the winner perform as they do seem to be getting quite spiteful lately.
Anyhow, The Voice Kids with Stephen Mulhern can probably be pencilled in for January 2017. God, they really do blind auditions with kids - that seems harsher than anything Cowell has ever done.
For ITV now having the rights means they can use it as leverage against Cowell / The X Factor and potentially axe the show completely. I get the impression they may also have the option of making an additional 'junior' version of the show, which the BBC had been against making.
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Cowell still controls BGT and there will be serious singing show fatigue if they do a junior version (which has flopped in most markets) as well.
This is how I see it. The Voice is going to ITV in 2017, will be in the slot X Factor normally runs for, since I doubt X Factor will survive after next year (BGT will however, it's still popular).
Cowell will instead focus on America's Got Talent and BGT, and rest more during the year (this is due to his mum's death and because of other issues during this year).
X Factor will have another year, but should state it's the last series before hand and make sure it goes out with a bang.
The problem is that the Voice is currently 22hours a series at the moment versus The X factor which I think is 44! That is a massive hole in the schedule.
BBC already do 7x 90minute episodes of the spinning chair round. So that can't really be stretched that much further and the ratings decline sharply for the further rounds in every market.
There is also the audience skew, its older and more middle class (ie BBCish) than the X Factor and I suspect that like with the Andrew Lloyd Webber talent shows the audience won't follow especially against Strictly if it was a direct replacement for the X Factor.
Overall imho ITV/ Talpa would have been better off getting 12m a year from the BBC for it.
The Voice is bad enough on BBC... imagine how much more dragged out it would be on ITV?
Regardless, it'll be interesting to see the changes in pres and to see whether ITV will carry over the judges and presenters. I imagine there'll be changes, but wouldn't be surprised if Emma Willis kept the top job.
So just as their current singing show looks to be in almost terminal decline, ITV decide the answer to their woes is to buy in another singing contest.
Do they even have a department that commissions entertainment programmes anymore as they don't have much to show for it ? The XF decline has been apparent for many years now, yet there is still an over reliance on it with nothing apparent in development to take over once it finally disappears from screens.
I can't wait to see what they come up with in January following the dismal failures of Stars in Their Eyes & Get Your Act Together. Is it to early for the inevitable Dancing on Ice & Who Wants to be a Millionaire revivals ?
I hope this gives ITV the flexibility to reset the whole thing. I've never liked the X-Factor, and frankly I got bored with singing competitions somewhere during Popstars: The Rivals, but of those I asked who used to enjoy the X Factor, the concensus seems to be that the entire thing is dragged on far too long nowadays. Obviously ITV/Syco haven't achieved that view, because the whole thing is dragged out more this year than ever before. ITV need more variety in their weekend line up, Saturdays in particular.
This essentially gives ITV options in the future. They at are less reliant on The X Factor but I can't see them axing it as it still rates relatively well and I think it would be too big a risk to rely solely on The Voice as they don't know how it'll do for them.
Interesting I just did some research on Wikipedia and the average viewing figures for the last series of both shows was 8.6m so The Voice could easily become a bigger show and ITV will be in a position to be more aggressive or less constrained than the BBC was in terms of developing the format.
Everyone is suspecting ITV. What if Viacom have surprised us all and got it for Channel 5? God knows they need some big rating tentpole programmes apart from Big Brother which is declining after every series. The Voice could do quite well for them.