We already know new stuff has been creates from the xmas thread.
Nothing formally confirmed on that thread from what I can see, just speculation.
That said, I agree with you- BBC One will almost certainly have made something new for Christmas.
I think considering last year's was very distinctive and the promo was seen as something of an 'event', it'd be like John Lewis re-running a previous Christmas advert if they used it again.
The kiddy snowflakes and the giant snowball which were repeated, were an extension of the channel's existing branding, so to an extent, they got away with it. If last year's idents were Oneness themed 'Ice-skaters, Solihull' or 'Panto actors, Saffron Walden' looking gormlessly at a wobbly camera, they could probably wheel them out again, rather like ITV do with theirs.