would they really pay all that money per episode and put it on ITV2?
No probably not. We dont know what the asking price is. But it does have a good repeat value imo.
ITV2 will tweet the hell out of it and probably have promos all over the place.
ITV2 is the last and final place for it.
Given how ITV2 regularly rates - they could take a chance on putting it on that channel. Also neuters the fact that some daytime programming harks back to ITV repeat fare.
As it stands, BBC ONE and ITV have fairly popular schedules that have been the norm for a few years now (would be unthinkable to change these well established schedules just to shove Neighbours in). Channel 4 may or may not take a chance (not sure). BBC TWO is well documented for having a daytime schedule riddled with repeats (thanks, DQF), and the BBC aren't prepared to pay again for a soap that they ditched almost a decade ago.
ITV have a pretty good daytime lineup with no real scope for change unless they move Loose Women or the Chase for the existing slots or they could have it at 3pm on ITV as that is really the only interchangeable daytime slot as it has a mixture of shows such as James Martin, Dickinson Real Deal and Whose Doing the Dishes. If they have it at 3pm they would also repeat it later maybe at 7.30pm on ITV2 which could do well. Channel 4 would probably have it on E4 with First Look Hollyoaks at 7pm and First Look Neighbours at 7.30pm and repeat it next day on Channel 4.
Also agree with most of what you say however BBC didn't ditch the soap, they put in a bid to keep it and Fremantle rejected it as they didn't think it was enough and went to Channel 5 who paid for it. At the time it was still hitting 3-4 million on BBC One and one of if not the biggest of the BBC daytime programmes, now with CBBC gone the schedule changed and likes of Pointless, Antiques Road Trip, Flog It moved to BBC One and now have a solid afternoon line up and Doctors has overtaken Neighbours as the main daytime soap so I can't see it going back to the BBC and even if the BBC get it for cheap people will say they should be investing money into British Drama and License Fee is going on this.