As I've said before, I think it's only natural evolution to see extended channel portfolios being cut back. We only ended up with BBC3, BBC4, BBC this, BBC that as a result of turn of the century thinking that digital TV=more channels=more choice=better. That was a perfectly reasonable position for the time, but this was a pre-broadband, pre-IPTV time where the technology and the infrastructure for viable catch up services like iPlayer did not exist and more broadcast channels was the only way to deliver more content.
I believe that whilst a traditional broadcast channel is still the best vehicle for airing new content, for catchup and repeats iPlayer will take over which will make it harder to justify continuing to support a large channel portfolio spending much of their broadcast hours airing little-viewed repeats.
The only BBC channels I would say are guaranteed to survive are BBC1, BBC2, and the News Channel. Parliament probably will too as it's cheap and filling a public service remit, possibly one (but definitely not both) of the kids channels might hang on (although it wouldn't surprise me if they also go and kids programming goes back to being a strand on BBC1/2). But long term I can't see them maintaining all the channels they have now in a world when broadcast TV shifts to being about new content with repeats being viewed mainly through iPlayer. BBC3's closure is just the start, IMO.
And I don't think this is purely a BBC thing, I think *all* mainstream broadcasters will end up going through the same sort of process, and the almost-entirely-archive broadcasters like UKTV may end up finding they have no place at all in the broadcast TV market.
I think it's very likely than in 10 years time there won't be any more than 20 or so mainstream TV channels broadcasting in the UK in total, everything else will have transitioned to an on-demand form (although doubtless there will still be hundreds of shopping channels cluttering up EPGs)
Last edited by cwathen on 11 March 2014 7:36pm - 2 times in total