Think officially they stand outside selected stations and ask people how they've voted.
It was stated on a BBC News article that Dimbleby gets informed of the exit poll as early as 9:45 (or maybe 9:30, can't find the article atm) as he said he has to go into lockdown until going on the air at 9:55 so they can't be standing outside stations as late as 10pm, bearing in mind if you have a queue and the clock goes ten you should still get a vote. In theory.
Yes I believe they do. During 2015 the exit poll was updated at 11pm to reflect new information which was submitted after 9pm.
So the 10pm exit poll is data before 9pm, and then the last hour comes in at 11pm.
At various polling stations throughout the country voters are asked, as they leave the station, to place a ballot in a dummy ballot box for the party they voted for. This makes it's a secret ballot and roots out the 'shy Tory factor'.
Think officially they stand outside selected stations and ask people how they've voted.
It was stated on a BBC News article that Dimbleby gets informed of the exit poll as early as 9:45 (or maybe 9:30, can't find the article atm) as he said he has to go into lockdown until going on the air at 9:55 so they can't be standing outside stations as late as 10pm, bearing in mind if you have a queue and the clock goes ten you should still get a vote. In theory.
Yes I believe they do. During 2015 the exit poll was updated at 11pm to reflect new information which was submitted after 9pm.
So the 10pm exit poll is data before 9pm, and then the last hour comes in at 11pm.
It's also the case that the 'Forecast' (as they now tend to call it) continues to evolve as they mix in the data from the real results with the exit poll data right through until we have entirely real results.
Think officially they stand outside selected stations and ask people how they've voted.
It was stated on a BBC News article that Dimbleby gets informed of the exit poll as early as 9:45 (or maybe 9:30, can't find the article atm) as he said he has to go into lockdown until going on the air at 9:55 so they can't be standing outside stations as late as 10pm, bearing in mind if you have a queue and the clock goes ten you should still get a vote. In theory.
Yes I believe they do. During 2015 the exit poll was updated at 11pm to reflect new information which was submitted after 9pm.
So the 10pm exit poll is data before 9pm, and then the last hour comes in at 11pm.
Think officially they stand outside selected stations and ask people how they've voted.
The ITV guy said they're asked to vote again in secret rather than just tell them how they vote.
I would also assume that the error in the 2015 poll has been reflected in how this year's exit poll has been translated into number of seats.
I wish I could find the tweet or Instagram post I liked last night (I liked A LOT). It showed an exit polster outside a polling station with a ballot box of their own.
People are randomly selected at 144 polling stations across the UK. About 30,000 people took part in this year's exit poll. They are asked to complete a secret ballot - like a previous poster said.
These numbers are then crunched by psephologists from major broadcasters - Sky News, BBC and ITV News. An editorial representative then rings it through to each broadcaster, about 25 to 30 minutes before 10pm. This is under a very strict embargo until then - and in Sky's case, only a few people knew the result. The rest of the newsroom, including presenters, react spontaneously at 10pm.
One key thing about the Exit poll is that it is fine-tuned based on previous polling experience. This is why it is much more difficult to Exit poll one-off referenda. Boundary changes also have an impact in some cases.
One report I read past 2015 gave the impression that once the first Exit Poll boxes were opened and tallied at 1000 - three hours after the polls opened that the first estimation by the committee was almost spot on., with the Conservatives at or around 330 seats, which was a lot closer to the final result than the 2200 estimation. Whether fact or fiction it does show the dynamic nature of the day.
[quote:0707364199="Connews" pid="1064810"]People are randomly selected at 144 polling stations across the UK. About 30,000 people took part in this year's exit poll. They are asked to complete a secret ballot - like a previous poster said.[/quote:0707364199]
Apparently the random selection is on the basis of sampling every nth voter. Every 7th at a polling station here, apparently. I'm not sure what happens if that person refuses to take part, if they ask the next one or just skip that whole round of voters.
One key thing about the Exit poll is that it is fine-tuned based on previous polling experience. This is why it is much more difficult to Exit poll one-off referenda. Boundary changes also have an impact in some cases.
I would have thought that's part of the reason why the last two exit polls have been spot on, there's been no major changes.
However there were due to be major boundary changes for the next (2020) general election but obviously that didn't happen, and presumably will be delayed even more of there's another later in the year. I expect that they'll be less accurate in 2022 or whenever the next scheduled general election is
