The Newsroom

TV Exit polls

(June 2017)

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:-(
A former member
I would put it in the main thread but it will get lost in the talk.

How does this really work? There seems to be a late surge or people voting because of the rain. Do the exit poll people wait until 9pm? Do there get to look at the postage votes?
SP
Steve in Pudsey
They should not have access to postal votes.
WW
WW Update
They should not have access to postal votes.


In the U.S. at least, traditional phone-based polls of mail-in/absentee ballots are combined with on-the-scene exit polling.
:-(
A former member
They should not have access to postal votes.


In the U.S. at least, traditional phone-based polls of mail-in/absentee ballots are combined with on-the-scene exit polling.


Thats stupid.
WW
WW Update
They should not have access to postal votes.


In the U.S. at least, traditional phone-based polls of mail-in/absentee ballots are combined with on-the-scene exit polling.


Thats stupid.


Why is that stupid? You can't get an estimate of the actual results unless you consider both election day votes and mail-in votes (which are substantial in many states).
:-(
A former member
Phone in polls could be way out.
WW
WW Update
Phone in polls could be way out.


Yes, but there's no other way of estimating mail-in and absentee ballots. And phone polls of people who have already voted tend to be more accurate than polls of people who have yet to vote (and may end up not voting at all.)
NJ
Neil Jones Founding member
Think officially they stand outside selected stations and ask people how they've voted.

It was stated on a BBC News article that Dimbleby gets informed of the exit poll as early as 9:45 (or maybe 9:30, can't find the article atm) as he said he has to go into lockdown until going on the air at 9:55 so they can't be standing outside stations as late as 10pm, bearing in mind if you have a queue and the clock goes ten you should still get a vote. In theory.
WW
WW Update
Think officially they stand outside selected stations and ask people how they've voted.


For election day votes, yes. The only issue are mail-in and absentee votes, which in-person exit polling can't take into account.
NJ
Neil Jones Founding member
Think its true what they say, the floating voter has more power than they realise, as opposed to those who have already decided "I'm going to vote this way". Perhaps if voting was compulsory in this country the floating voters who decide randomly when they turn up at the ballot box in the school/library/community centre/scout hut/windmill could really put the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons and make these things more interesting...
BR
Brekkie
Think officially they stand outside selected stations and ask people how they've voted.

The ITV guy said they're asked to vote again in secret rather than just tell them how they vote.

I would also assume that the error in the 2015 poll has been reflected in how this year's exit poll has been translated into number of seats.
:-(
A former member
Prof John Curtis is now speaking on BBC News about this poll

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