DTV1,182 posts since 27 Feb 2012
Meridian (South) South Today
You may be wondering why have I dragged this back up? My question is simple, the boundary commissions reports back next week about the review of 600 seat westminster, but since there no chance in hell that will get past now, does that mean the current boundary s will be in play thus the exit polls for the TV stations will be just like the past 3?


Rumour is that Boundary Commission has been tasked with creating a new set of boundaries with 650 constituencies - though to the same standards as the 600 seater (Wales probably still drastically cut like Scotland in 2005). Government would never get the proposed boundaries through as the DUP are opposed to them and a number of Conservative MPs are worried about the implications of the review (Boris's seat is Labour under new boundaries). Either way it is likely that the next election will have new boundaries - and it is overdue. There have been 7 sets of boundaries post-war (1945; 1950-51; 1955-70; 1974-79; 1983-92; 1997-2005 (Scotland 1997-2001); 2010-) and only one set has done more than 3 elections. I imagine the broadcasters will then poll together to create a notional result for each constituency.

In terms of the Exit Poll - I'm not sure what you mean. The poll itself will almost definitely take place in the same polling stations as the last few as that is the best way to gauge it - the Exit Poll works by calculating the swing in these chosen polling stations from one election to the next. It is only later that the calculations are applied to constituencies. If there are new boundaries the swing will be calculated against the theoretical notional results of the 2017 election if they had taken place on the new boundaries. It's what happened in 2010. For the viewer, the exit poll will be the same as always.

The 600 seat boundaries are a complete mess anyhow. The idea of cutting the number of MPs was pointless politicking. It was supposed to show that politicians were cutting themselves, however their subsequent salary increases have far exceeded any hypothetical saving. The quota for seat electorates is also far too strict - while constituencies should be evenly sized, it is also important they reflect actual communities (the actual reason it is called the House of Commons) and established boundaries (Devonwall is not worth the hassle). Plus the electorate data the review is based on is over 2 national polls out of date (from late 2015) - so over a million voters aren't being taken into account. It is a complete shambles.
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