To pick up on the points made by Brekkie and Hatton Cross about studio availability... If you know a bit about how Parliament operates, you can narrow the possible dates for the next general election.
- There have to be 25 working days (five weeks) between the dissolution of Parliament and the general election itself.
- A campaign can be longer than five weeks. The 2017 election was seven weeks.
- Let’s use five to seven weeks as our ‘window’ so to speak.
October
Parliament will be prorogued by 12th September at the latest. If an election is called before prorogation, it will take place between 17th and the 31st October (five to seven weeks). To throw a spanner in the works, the European Council meets on 18th October so the likelihood of the election before that date is slim. The moment that an election is called the BBC will commandeer a studio to start building the set and rehearsing. That will be a logistical nightmare if it goes for one used by Strictly, Graham Norton etc.
So, let’s scratch October from our list and move on to the next.
November
Parliament reconvenes on 14th October. As it’s a new session, a Queen’s Speech will be held. That is - after all - the reason for prorogation (so we’ve been told). Parliament usually debates the Speech. This typically takes six days which would take us to 21st October. There’s nothing to stop an election being called on 14th October but, given the Government wanted a Queen’s Speech, it would be foolhardy to not do it properly (and may cost them at the ballot box).
Let’s assume then that the election is triggered on 21st October. The minimum five week period takes you to Monday 25th November. If the Government wanted to be ‘traditional’ and go to the polls on a Thursday… well, there’s only one Thursday left in November. It’s the 28th. That means that there are four days in October (21st - 24th) to conceivably call an election in November. Again, the moment that an election is called, the BBC will look for studio space and there’s the added headache of Children-in-Need in November.
A couple of things to bear in mind. First, If an election is triggered in October (21st - 24th) it will only be a five week campaign. Any longer and you’re in December. That risks disrupting Christmas arrangements and that would be political suicide. Secondly, there’s always the option of a vote of confidence. If a vote should be called and the Government loses, then there is a fourteen (calendar) day window for the Government or the Opposition to command the confidence of the House, otherwise it’s an election. The Opposition must be certain it can command the confidence of the House within those fourteen day if it calls a vote of confidence. If not, it’s an election. So fourteen days takes us to the 4th November, at which point Parliament dissolves and an election called for 9th December at the earliest and 23rd December at the latest.
December
So, let’s scratch November from our list and move on to the next. Which is December. Which is just plain stupid. I know. We’ve had three general elections in December before now but the last time was in 1923, so… let’s ignore December. Though some festive election idents would be quite nice…
2020
That takes us to… 2020 at which point Parliament won’t reconvene until 6th January, whereupon the earliest an election could be held would be 10th February. And of course the three-month extension to Article 50 runs out on 31st January so you can guarantee that there will be further discussions about delaying or extending (again).
Strange as it may seem, the window of opportunity for a general election this year is closing. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying that certain events have to take place in a certain order to make it happen. As I've said, the present coverage is missing a little bit of rational thought on these things. All this talk of elections and there may not be time for one.
Last edited by Schwing on 7 September 2019 12:26am