The Newsroom

EU Referendum

Presentation of the REF BUT NOT DEBATE OF THE REF (February 2016)

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BR
Brekkie
It would be a surprise if Tom Bradby wasn't leading the coverage but has anything actually been confirmed yet?
AA
Aaron_2015
Tom Bradby confirmed for the overnight coverage:

Quote:
On the night of 23rd to 24th June, ITV News will be on-air through the night covering the results as they come in, with an overnight programme anchored by Tom Bradby.


Followed by GMB, and then Alastair Stewart during the day:

Quote:
On June the 24th, Good Morning Britain will be on air as viewers wake up to the result, and an ITV News special presented by Alastair Stewart will follow, analysing the result and what it means for the future of the UK.


http://www.itv.com/presscentre/press-releases/eu-referendum-itv
Brekkie and London Lite gave kudos
BR
Brekkie
Thanks. That does suggest that as we'd expect GMB will continue through to ITV News picking up the coverage again at 9.25am.
CH
chris
Thanks. That does suggest that as we'd expect GMB will continue through to ITV News picking up the coverage again at 9.25am.


Indeed. Only scheduled until 10:30am but expect that to be extended if it's Brexit.
OM
Omnipresent
From what I've seen on Facebook, the BBC will be projecting the result on New Broadcasting House as projection testing has been taking place this week.
UB
UBox
I'd expect the BBC schedule to change with coverage all through the night. Presumably GMB will continue through to 9.25 too.

I was expecting GMB to be on till 10:30 as it was with the Scottish Referendum. Then again it was only on till 9:25 for the general election.
DV
dvboy
UBox posted:
I'd expect the BBC schedule to change with coverage all through the night. Presumably GMB will continue through to 9.25 too.

I was expecting GMB to be on till 10:30 as it was with the Scottish Referendum. Then again it was only on till 9:25 for the general election.

Remember ITV News didn't do an overnight programme for the Scottish Ref, and took STV's shambolic coverage instead until GMB. It would have been a lot of effort to do an hour at 9:25 especially when the result was likely to have been known well before then. Much easier for ITV to get GMB to carry on and concentrate efforts on the lunchtime and evening programmes.
BR
Brekkie
Didn't Tom Bradby join GMB in the studio last year too?

They should just have Alastair and Susanna co-host continuing coverage from 6-10.30am.


chris posted:
Thanks. That does suggest that as we'd expect GMB will continue through to ITV News picking up the coverage again at 9.25am.


Indeed. Only scheduled until 10:30am but expect that to be extended if it's Brexit.

As good a reason as any to vote remain - This Morning could be the first casualty of us leaving Europe.
chris and watchingtv gave kudos
DT
DTV
DTV posted:
As far as I'm aware there is no exit poll, so it's just going to be a load of waffle for a few hours until the results come in.


There will be no exit poll as there would be no point - the whole referendum is based on one result rather than 650 individual results so the exit poll would really just suggest the actual result. There will only be an hour or so of waffle probably as Sunderland should be in by at least 2330. They'll presumably fill the gap with interviews/looking at polls/talking about 1975. I expect we'll have Maitlis and Vine telling us similar things just one in an analytical way and the other in a patronising way.


"so the exit poll would really just suggest the actual result" - that's what they tend to do the last time we had one last year.


No a general election exit poll projects a sample of voters from pre-selected constituencies which fit broadly in line with the national demographic totals and represent marginal and safe seats. Swings are then created based on region, incumbency, demographic make up, seat type, parties standing etc. and these swings are then applied to the result of the previous election suggesting the number of MPs made up in the next House of Commons which in turn suggests the result of the election. With the referendum an exit poll cannot project anything other than the overall result because there are no swings that are possible to conduct. The general election exit poll only indirectly suggests the result by projecting the number of MPs in the House of Commons.

A general election exit poll is only suggestive as it is a projection - you can't be suggestive when there are only two responses - you are either right or wrong. If an exit poll says that party X will gain 30 seats and they gain 45 then that's OK the poll has spotted the general trend of the election. If an exit poll says that the referendum will be a 'No' and it's a 'Yes' then the poll has failed miserably. A general election poll will have thousands of possible results, a referendum poll will have two. It isn't worth the risk of getting it wrong and that's one of the many reasons they don't do exit polls for referendums. This is what I was saying earlier, your needless pedantry just got hung up on a single word.
SL
Shaun Linden
There is still no main reason as to why they can't do a poll on the day, asking people how they voted, so at 10pm there is some sort of gauge of how people have voted.

So, I win. Thumbs up
SI
sigma421
There is still no main reason as to why they can't do a poll on the day, asking people how they voted, so at 10pm there is some sort of gauge of how people have voted.

So, I win. Thumbs up

Yes, but unless you ask everybody in the country you have to do some weighting to get a representative result. This is possible in a general election because we have years of previous voting patterns for every constituency so you can plot the results of your exit poll against what actually happened last time (and indeed in your last exit poll) and see the difference. That simply isn't possible here. Additionally, with it being a totally binary result, the consequences of the poll being wrong are even greater.
CH
chris
There is still no main reason as to why they can't do a poll on the day, asking people how they voted, so at 10pm there is some sort of gauge of how people have voted.

So, I win. Thumbs up

Yes, but unless you ask everybody in the country you have to do some weighting to get a representative result. This is possible in a general election because we have years of previous voting patterns for every constituency so you can plot the results of your exit poll against what actually happened last time (and indeed in your last exit poll) and see the difference. That simply isn't possible here. Additionally, with it being a totally binary result, the consequences of the poll being wrong are even greater.


It's not impossible to do a comprehensive exit poll as you're suggesting. The more fundamental reason it's not being done is it's bloody expensive!

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