BBC Election 2015

I'll give them there dues there were spot on in 2010, but there were out in 1992. Problem is there is too many jokers in the packer this year. I just get the feeling you may have under estimated personality politics: UKIP, SNP. Then you have Tact voting, so there can really say how people will be like unless there in that seat.

Of course logical there would end up going those seats in the first place.

1992 has been dissected at length and the error explained, that's why I used the 'properly weighted' descriptor. Exit poll accuracy in the 1979, 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010 polls has been more or less spot on.

As for personality politics there are only two in the current parliament defying the polls, Galloway and Lucas. Maybe add Farage into the mix for 2015 and that's it. There are regional populist members, yes, who attract cross party support but these are reducing as each election passes. Indeed the one in Cornwall, Andrew George is by some accounts likely to fall in May.

Unless the exit polls are held in those seats with the biggest ? it will not be possible for them to get the correct answers

Having seen Rick Wakeman live a few times, I can report that according to him, apparently the BBC wanted Rick Wakeman to pay for the privilege of the use of Arthur as the theme tune. He cheerfully declined the offer.

The BBC 1997 re-record has appeared on YouTube as part of their music collection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1QLlam9Yds

2005 appeared to be a further re-record / rearrangement but I don't think it was released on one of Rick's albums like Election 97 was. In 2005 there was also a 5-minute background track (again suspiciously sounds Rick-esque) between programme start and exit poll.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfUwO4LAJLs

The BBC exit poll from 1987 is generally considered to be as wrong as that from 1992. Whilst obviously there was going to be a Conservative government returned the exit poll differed greatly from the actual result. The exit poll predicted a Tory majority of 26 compared with a real majority of 102.

1987
% Share: Con 40% Lab 35% All 23% Oth 2%
Seats: Con 338 Lab 261 All 26 Oth 25

Actual Share: Con 42% Lab 31% All 23% Oth 4%
Seats: Con 376 Lab 229 All 22 Oth 23

Error Share: Con -2% Lab +4% All 0% Oth -2%
Error Seats: Con -38 Lab +32 All +4 Oth +2

But yes, the Exit Polls are so much more reliable than people tend to think they are.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=47437.0

I especially like the man sat at the bottom right pf the video wall who gestures his hand with the crescendo (see 5:15-5:20 in the video)

Wow, just watched that video and realised how accurate the exit poll was in 2010. Think I might just go to bed at 10:01pm this time round!

But of course there only deal with uniform swings.

As I recall from a discussion about BARB viewing figures, when the total population is large enough it takes a surprisingly small sample to give yourself a surprising good chance of getting surprisingly close to the truth.

Ooh, I'm looking forward to that. It'll definitely be on the biggest telly in our living room.

The closing sequence from 2010 gives me shivers too - parts of the montage feel like they belong in a film, aided by the epic music and sweeping shots. Any idea who paid for the steadicam and jib in Downing Street? Presumably they were pooled.

I look forward to seeing them. And then seeing them on YouTube with the Arthur Music overlayed on it

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/1976792/BBC%20Election%202010%203%2700.mp3
It's pretty awesome!