No Time to Die - Delayed James Bond film.

After many denials it seems that with Covid-19 persisting that the producers are contemplating moving the film to a streaming launch after all. If so the bidding war between the possible outlets for a Christmas launch will be intense. I can imagine there'll be considerable interest shown.

More on this ....

https://midiaresearch.com/blog/no-time-to-die-contemplates-a-streaming-future

Bond is a big screen film. Ride it out and give it a Worldwide release at Easter next year.

But if they have to go via the streaming way and if they have any sense, EON/MGM will try and get it on all streaming outlets, not just sell it to the highest bidder...

.. Which will happen. And those with just one Apple+, Prime or Notflix account will be hacked off, as it will end up on one of the other two.

Otherwise, I'll look forward to the sequel - The Man With The Golden Amazon Prime Account.

This assumes we'll be out of this by Easter 2021, I'm not so sure that's a realistic prognosis.

The article is quite explicit in that it seems that the producers want to recoup the anticipated profit $350M in the short to medium term. Allowing this release to extend ad infinutum risks that considerably. Although not released it'll become stale. A quick sale to either AZ, Apple or Netflix would sort this instantly.

Netflix seemingly needing something quickly to hang it's subs on (especially as their rates are rising imminently globally, they've increased in the US tonight).

A three month Exclusive deal from Dec - Feb with a multiple outlet offer starting in March then catching Cinemas when able would to me be sensible considering everything in play now.

Ah, that Netflix thing might explain why I saw (and took advantage of) a Netflix BOGOF offer yesterday (pay for one month, get the next free), in what may be an attempt to stem the flow in light of the Cuties film where everybody's cancelling their subscription in light of it. Whether Stranger Things and The Crown and whatever else will stem the exodus remains to be seen, I know ST and Crown have new seasons coming up - as great as ST is and as great a success it has been for everybody involved, it can't hold the churn on its own, no programme can.

The Cuties thing is like Minipops all over again...

It won’t play in cinemas if it’s had a streaming release. That’s a dangerous precedent to set that would destroy the cinema industry and, in turn, the film industry. I would be very surprised if Bond goes to streaming.

I just don't agree with that. I think if it's released in the next 12 months, or even longer, it'll still be hugely anticipated. It's not a bottle of milk, or even an adaptation of a novel. Unless it were to be leaked and widely viewed/spoiled, I think it will remain an exciting prospect, especially as it's not currently being lapped by (many) other movies in development being released.

The issue with something like Bond is that once you move it to streaming on an SVOD platform, it’s likely you can’t go back... you can’t then put the next one in cinemas after the audience were able to experience the previous film at home for minimal cost and you likely will not be able to strike the same commercial relationships you had when it was a theatrical proposition... and it’s why Black Widow was moved and not put onto Disney Plus - do that and then you may set the expectation that Eternals and Shang Chi should go direct to streaming.

I don’t think movies of that scale are viable long terms on SVOD platforms and that’s a reason why the likes of Universal are moving things like Fast 9, Jurassic World 3 and Minions 2 - these are billion dollar grossers with windows for revenue outside of the theatrical release

Now I’m sure people will say that Netflix are spending stupid amounts of money on things like Gray Man and Red Notice but even those are questionable - they’re comping the talent at significant rates (The 3 leads of Red Notice are reportedly walking off with over $60m between them) which is NOT going on screen and unlike Bond and Marvel will have no significant downstream revenue... they’re doing it to keep up and if theatrical releases did disappear they wouldn’t be spending like that anymore.

Apple have the hard cash to pay for something like Bond, even for a year but is it worth $600 million or more? I think even they would have a ceiling for what’s reasonable! If MGM wanted to unload Bond or ease up the finances I’d be more minded to think Universal would be the likeliest partner given they have international distribution.

The Bond films have ever done that well at the Oscars, but it'd need some kind of cinema release in Los Angeles to qualify (though these rules have been altered and I'm not sure of the current position: https://deadline.com/2020/04/oscars-major-changes-academy-awards-coronavirus-1202919950/)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is running on Netflix and is also showing in cinemas (including in the UK); maybe some kind of hybrid release like that would work.

Only smaller chains and independents. Cinema chains are fiercely defensive of the release window (the time between cinema release and home release) as it threatens the viability of the whole industry. It’s not just self-preservation (although naturally that plays a part), films wouldn’t make nearly as much money without box office revenue and therefore less films will get made.

Yes, that is true - I wasn't entirely sure just how small the run was (or how that can be judged with Cineworld and perhaps others out of action). I imagine the run has a lot to do with the timing and the film's subject matter.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the type of film that thrives in the art house and independents but struggles in the multiplexes.

That was debunked already.
https://ew.com/movies/no-time-to-die-cinemas-streaming/