Christmas TV 2020

Will be interesting to see what the BBC will do if Disney+ gets all the rights to their films. Stay with animation (albeit less successful at the box office than Disney's), move to newer live-action releases or show more old, a la Grease on Boxing Day?

Can't see that happening. The latest releases will end up on Disney+ instead of Sky, but that doesn't mean they won't still get terrestrial airings a few years later.

But if did, they'll fall back on Dreamworks. Shrek, Dragons, etc.

AFAIK there has not been any comment indicating that any material will become Disney+ exclusive in perpetuity. If they consider that some 'aged' material could raise a few $$$ by licensing a number of showings on a third party service they'll do it. 'The Sound of Music' for example is on Disney+ through it's C20Fox connection, that'll be on licence in perpetuity in most markets to other broadcasters.

I'll be surprised if stuff becomes solely exclusively for Disney+. Maybe the stuff made for it yes, but that's not granted (there is some material that was made for Amazon Prime that has turned up outside of Amazon Prime so if they're happy to effectively syndicate it there's no reason why Disney couldn't either if they wanted to). There are examples in the past of Disney Channel content that ended up on what I presume are seen as "neutral ground", so you wouldn't see it on Nickelodeon for example but they were happy to let it go on CBBC and CITV (presume it was seen as a plug as such).

This depends on how BBC and Disney behave.

But Disney is greedy as hell, even many public broadcasters from countries which have Disney+ (and I can confirm it for Italy) have already lost most Disney movies

Disney is also a company. The whole point of a company is to make money.
And the whole point of Disney+ was to get in on the trend for streaming using the archive they've generated over the years in the various forms. An archive which was also built ultimately to make money, they didn't do all that for fun.

I've nothing major against Disney - indeed, I'm not ashamed to admit that I still love the original Lion King and 101 Dalmatians, over 25 years after I first saw them.

I do also love *this*, however, and I can't resist posting it here...

Disney were happy to licence their films when they had videos or DVDs to flog, why should it be any different now they have a streaming service?

It's a good shop window - and the terms may well stipulate that if (as a broadcaster) you want a network premiere of a popular one, it also means showing X number of less popular films too.

They're not daft: for every film they get on BBC One, there's going to be a 6 year old pestering their parent to watch it again, and that may well be the tipping point for that parent reaching for their credit card and signing up for Disney+.

I'll call it now: Frozen II, BBC One, Christmas Day 2022, 3.10pm.

BIB- good call, I reckon.

I predict Mary Poppins Returns getting shown on BBC One next Christmas, but with a running time of over 2 hours, I think it's perhaps more likely they'll show it on Boxing Day, rather than Christmas Day itself.

If they are using the 3 year rule for movies, next year will be quite strong for Disney. My prediction is:

Christmas Eve- Ralph Breaks The Internet
Christmas Day- Incredibles 2
Boxing Day- Mary Poppins Returns

Guessing Ralph will have a 4:30ish slot, and Incredibles 2 will be after the Queen's Speech. MPR however, I think could be a little later. Assuming Final Score will be on One next Boxing Day afternoon, would they dare premiere MPR at about 5:30ish?

Certainly one of the better efforts of recent years though, though not a classic.

BBC1 though can't continue focusing more on their Christmas identity than the 11 other months of the year. The cost argument is a none starter when they're not afraid to spend on the Christmas campaign (these really benefitted from not feeling cheap) and other promo campaigns.

I think Christopher Robin will be on Christmas Day, with Mary Poppins returns on Boxing Day. Incredibles 2 reserved for New Year's Day but Ralph Breaks The internet may be the Xmas Eve afternoon film but the BBC were involved in Last Christmas so I think that will air around 9.30pm on Christmas Eve next year!